Here are my top 10 Wide Receivers for the 2011 season.
1)Andre Johnson- The guy missed 3 games and played the majority of the season on a bum ankle and still racked up 86 receptions, 1216 yards and 8 tds. Arian Foster helps take some heat off the passing game giving Matt Schaub more time to look downfield at AJ. He averaged over 10 targets per game this season. Expect a healthy Johnson to post huge numbers once again, double digit touchdowns and a 1,500 yard+ season.
2) Calvin Johnson- In 3 games with Matthew Stafford he had 14 receptions, 169 yards and 3 tds. Extrapolate that over a season and you are looking at 77 receptions, 901 yards and 18 tds and I fully believe that to be on the very low end of the spectrum in terms of yards and receptions. Johnson is a freak of nature and given a little time to build a rapport with Stafford, I wouldn’t be surprised if they become the most feared duo in the NFL. I expect 12+ tds and at least 1,200 receiving yards this year.
3) Hakeem Nicks- I admit that I am a Giants fan and this might seem biased but I have seen the rapport he has with Eli Manning and this guy gets targets…. a lot of them. He had 128 targets on the year in the 13 games that he played. In those 13 games he had 79 receptions for 1052 yards and 11 tds. I’ve spent plenty of time watching Nicks and he is the red zone target in a pretty proficient offense. Manning likes to take chances downfield and Nicks is often the beneficiary, expect big things this season.
4) Roddy White- He had a bit of a dry spell near the end of the season but the targets were still coming. White led the league in targets with 179. With that many targets, the yards and receptions are bound to come. White has really morphed into a possession receiver with big play potential. He was a PPR monster this year with 115 receptions, 1389 yards and 10 tds. The Falcons offense isn’t changing so expect similar numbers for White this season.
5) Greg Jennings- Jennings had a slow first five games of the season (14 receptions, 183 yards, 3 tds). The rest of the season he caught on fire (62 receptions, 1082 yards, 9 tds). He was one of the hottest receivers through that span and he is developing truly elite chemistry with QB Aaron Rodgers. He is a huge downfield threat but has also become a threat in the short game. The Packers may have found a legitimate rushing threat in James Starks which will only help the passing game. I see big numbers for Jennings this season.
6) Brandon Lloyd- I know he was the number one receiver this year but a lot of people are expecting a big drop off for Lloyd with Tebow at the helm and a restructured Broncos team. I like Tebow as a quarterback. The threat of Tebow tucking the ball and running makes defenses dedicated more defenders to the line of scrimmage to keep an eye on him. This opens up the secondary and creates more downfield passing opportunities which happens to be Lloyd’s specialty. In the 3 games that Tebow started, Lloyd had 14 receptions for 263 yards and 2 tds. Stretch that over a season and it turns into 75 receptions for 1403 yards and 11 tds. Those are nearly identical to his total numbers from this year (77 receptions, 1448 yards, 11 tds). This shows that there is no drop off in Lloyd’s production when Tebow is quarterback versus Orton. I hope that Tebow stays the starter. There was a fire in the Broncos when Tebow was starting, a fire that was just never there with Orton. Regardless of the starting QB, Lloyd should be a very good wide receiver again.
7) Dwayne Bowe- He had a historic stretch in the middle of season. In a 6 game stretch Bowe had 43 receptions, 625 yards and 13 tds. Keeping that up for a season would have been impossible and don’t expect that kind of production next season. Then again, don’t expect the 3 games stretch with 3 receptions and 56 yards to be the norm either. Matt Cassel has proven his ability to shred porous defenses and as he becomes more comfortable with the Chiefs he should be able to grow as a quarterback and get rid of the horrific outings that marred his season. Expect Bowe and Cassel to grow as a duo and Bowe is still a fantastic leaper so the touchdowns will come.
8 ) Reggie Wayne- I keep expecting Wayne to show his age but in his 10th season, he still struck fear into opposing defenses and had a very good season (111 receptions, 1355 yards and 6 tds). He was second in the league in targets with 176. He has one of the top quarterbacks in history throwing to him so the targets will come. I’m expecting Wayne to lose a step at some point but until that happens he is a PPR monster who will put up lots of yards and a smattering of touchdowns. Dallas Clark’s return should take some heat away from Wayne and barring a dramatic injury or drop in his production, I expect Wayne to post very similar numbers to this season. Look for about 100 receptions, 1200 yards and 6-8 tds.
9) Larry Fitzgerald- The Cardinals were plagued by awful quarterbacks. Whether it was Derek Anderson, John Skelton or Max Hall, the Cardinals very rarely had any hint of solid quarterback play. Despite all of this, Fitzgerald still had 90 receptions, for 1137 yards and 6 touchdowns. His 173 targets were third in the league and his 26 red zone targets led the league. Fitzgerald is a special talent and is very nearly the only offensive weapon on the Cardinals. The offense flows through him so expect the ball to go to him often even if it is forced. I expect the numbers seen this year to be the worst you will see from Fitzgerald and even the worst was still pretty good.
10) Kenny Britt- Once again this is higher than most people will rank Britt. I really liked what I saw from Britt in the games where he was fully healthy. At 6’ 3” and 215 pounds, Britt is a matchup nightmare for corners and safeties. He has the size to win a vertical battle but is also physical enough to break tackles and turn a short reception into a long gain. Opposing defenses still have to focus on stopping Chris Johnson which is bound to leave plenty of passing opportunities. Regardless of the quarterbacking situation in Tennessee, I still see plenty of passes for Britt. He will score, the questionable part is whether or not he can rack up the yards or receptions (in PPR leagues) to be a true fantasy stud.
Just missed the cut: Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Mike Williams (TB), Vincent Jackson, Deion Branch (yup I really wrote that, I almost put him in the top 10)
Here is a quick rundown of my top 10 fantasy running backs for next year.
All of my top guys are pretty close together though and no one running back stands clearly above the rest for one reason or another. Sure some guys have the talent to be a clear cut number one fantasy back but the situation does not always allow it.
1) Adrian Peterson- Even in an ‘off ‘ year this guy is great. Over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 13 tds. Plus 1, that’s right, 1 fumble after 16 the previous 2 years. However the quarterback situation in Minnesota is a mess. If, and that’s a big if, the QB can utilize Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin to threaten defenses then All-Day is set for a big year. If their gun-slinger proves incompetent *Ahem, Tavaris Jackson* then AP could be looking at another ‘down ‘ year.
2) Arian Foster- The clear cut breakout running back of the year and the NFL’s leading rusher with 1616 yards and a whopping 16 rushing tds. Foster came out of seemingly nowhere to lead Fantasy in scoring. He is a quick runner who is very capable of the home run play but also can run tough for the shorter yards. He also received the goal line carries and was a huge (66 rec, 604 yards, 2td) receiving threat. The only thing that keeps him from being my number one is the return Ben Tate. Keep an eye on the Texan’s backfield situation but I fully expect Foster to be a monster again.
3) Darren McFadden- Run DMC finally showed what he was made of this year and, when healthy, validated his 4th overall selection in the 2008 draft. The Raiders began to show some major life in the offense. McFadden not only racked up 1157 yards and 7 tds on the ground but also had 507 yards and 3 tds through the air. Keep in mind these numbers are lower due to injury. If McFadden can stay healthy, I like him to have a huge year.
4) Chris Johnson- CJ2K became CJ1.3K this year. This is not so much due to bad play but more because defenses focused solely on him. He still had 1609 total yards and 12 tds. I think that is the lowest you will get from him which is still a very solid number. He has very elite potential but is hindered by the QB play. Having Kenny Britt back will help keep defenses honest but I am not sure if Kerry Collins is scary enough to stop opposing D’s from stacking the box once again making CJ’s life miserable.
5) Maurice Jones-Drew- Man this guy is one fast bowling ball. He is just as capable of running people over as he is of blowing past them with speed. MJD is also a legitimate threat in the passing game. The only thing that scares me about him is that Rashad Jennings proved just annoying enough to steal some touches away from MJD. Jennings proved inept at the starting gig so don’t expect him to steal too much away from the Jag’s most skilled offensive player.
Plus he stuffed Shawne Merriman which is one of my favorite plays ever.
Video courtesy of youtube and vdtech543
6)Michael Turner- The Burner managed to stay healthy for a year which was a very nice reward for owners who took a chance on him. Turner’s YPC were way down but he still received 334 carries and is the crystal clear number one running back in a very prolific Falcons offense. He is not much of a threat in the passing game (12 receptions) but he will get carries and plenty of them. That will lead to a ton of yards and tds. If he can stay healthy, expect him to make fantasy owners very happy once again.
7) Deangelo Williams- I am sure I will catch some heat for this ranking but I still like him a lot. I know he was inefficient this year and had some major injury problems but he was plagued by being on the worst team in the NFL. Remember 2008 when he was totally healthy and had 20 total tds and 1600+ total yards, yeah that guy is still in there. He is certainly limited by his team and the thought of Jonathan Stewart stealing touches but he is also a free agent. If Williams manages to land on a different team (believe me anywhere is better than Carolina) then he could return to his elite status. The guy has number one running back written all over him, he just needs a team that can support him.
8 ) Jamaal Charles- Now I absolutely love Charles and ranking him this low really kills me but Chief’s coach Todd Haley just does not like to use this guy. An incredibly efficient Thomas Jones still receives the majority of the carries (245 carries, 3.7 YPC). Haley looks to take over the offensive play calling with Charlie Weiss on the way out and that scares me. Haley hasn’t seemed to figure out that Charles is the biggest threat on the offense. He was the sole bright spot in the blowout against the Ravens (9 carries, 82 yards, 9.1 YPC, 1 td) but he still only received 9 carries which just boggles my mind. Charles had an amazing 1467 rushing yards on just 230 carries this year…a record setting 6.4 yards per carry. He also picked up 468 yards on 45 catches but his downfall was the tds. Only 8 total due to Jones vulturing them. If Charles was the clear cut number one running back in KC then I would have him as my number one fantasy back, no doubt about it. With Jones and Haley consider Charles a very good fantasy back with elite potential, someone I would certainly take a risk on.
8* )Peyton Hillis- A reader mentioned him and it is very true that I overlooked Hillis and I apologize for the oversight. Hillis is an animal and is the only legitimate running back the up and coming Browns have. I’ve liked Hillis dating back to his Denver Bronco days. I love his punishing running style but also his agility and speed for a big guy. He faltered near the end of the season which scares me a little but I am willing to look past it and see his season as a whole. His workhorse load and punishing running style are why I don’t have him ranked higher. I am worried the injury bug might bite him during the wear and tear of an entire season. The idea of a healthy Montario Hardesty to steal touches scares me too.
9) Lesean McCoy- The Pittsburgh product is a great talent but his value is hurt because of Mike Vick’s presence. Vick’s talent as not only a passer but a runner opens up plenty of lanes for McCoy and makes the shovel pass particularly deadly. He also had 78 receptions making him arguably the most threatening running back in the league through the air. However, from anything 5 yards and in, Vick is more likely to just tuck the ball and run for the td himself which limits McCoy’s td potential. I like McCoy from a skill perspective but I don’t think he will receive enough carries or td opportunities to be a truly elite fantasy running back.
10) BenJarvus Green-Ellis- The Law firm has a very firm hold on the Patriot’s running situation. Sure Danny Woodhead is around as a change of pace back but make no mistake, this BJGE’s show. Tom Brady and the Pat’s passing offense is a machine and defenses are much more concerned with stopping them than BJGE. He should find plenty of lanes and with the Patriot’s most likely playing up a lot of the time, he should get plenty of carries even if most come in the 4th quarter. I predict over 1200 rushing yards this year plus a sprinkling of receiving yards and upwards of 15 tds (he had 13 this year).
Well since most fantasy drafts are happening very soon, I decided to shorten this up and list all of my sleepers. These guys won’t be tops in the league but they should be great values for how late they can be drafted. Consider this list additions to the ones that I have been posting throughout the week.
Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins-Henne was thrown into the fire last year and performed admirably with basically zero offense around him. Their best receiving threat was Davone Bess….undrafted free agent from Hawaii if you haven’t heard of him. Ronnie Brown, one of the best running backs in the league at taking short passes for long gains, was lost in the middle of the season due to injury and TE Anthony Fasano pulled quite the vanishing act (talentwise) during the year. This year, the Dolphins added elite receiver Brandon Marshall who should help out Henne immensely. Ronnie Brown will be back and I am expecting a strong season for Henne. Fearless Forecast: 3500 yards, 23 tds, 10 interceptions
Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants- Although Brandon Jacobs is listed as the feature back, Bradshaw looks primed to steal the starting gig from him. In limited action this year, Bradshaw looks to have fully recovered from his ankle and shoulder injuries that plagued him last year, and looks more explosive and agile than Jacobs. Don’t be surprised if he’s available very late in your draft and if he ends up getting more carries than Brandon Jacobs this year. Fearless Forecast: 30-40 receptions, 1000-1100 total yards, 6-8 tds
Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers- The rookie from Fresno State was electric last year, amassing 1800+ rushing yards and 19 tds. He immediately becomes the strongest candidate to replace LT as the feature back. Darren Sproles has proven himself to be most effective as a change of pace back/receiving threat, not as a starting back. Matthews should therefore be considered the primary back on a very dangerous offense that, without Vincent Jackson, should be more prone to running than they otherwise would have been. Fearless Forecast: 10-20 receptions, 1200-1300 total yards, 8-10 tds
Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders-This one is a little more dangerous. Bush has proven that he can be lethal when given enough carries (Week 15- 18 carries, 133 yards, 1 td vs Broncos; Week 10-14 carries, 118 yards; Week 17 ’08-27 carries, 177 yards, 2 tds). Justin Fargas is gone and Oakland’s three running back competition has turned to Bush vs Darren McFadden. McFadden, often injured and ineffective, is slowly becoming a bust and I believe Bush is the more talented back and will win the starting job over Run-DMC. Fearless Forecast: 10-20 receptions, 1000-1100 yards, 8-10 tds
Santana Moss, Washington Redskins- Moss has really been a hit and miss player the past couple of years. Some games he comes out and goes nuts, but in plenty of other games he disappears which makes him a very dangerous pick. He might win you a couple of weeks but could very well put up a goose egg a couple of times. The reason I like him this year is that he is still the best wide receiver in an offense now run by the strong armed Donovan McNabb. Moss has the speed to be the deep threat and McNabb has the arm to hook up with him (if you need proof just look at what McNabb did repeatedly with Desean Jackson last year). Washington’s young receivers are not stepping up so Moss is securely planted as the top option and new coach Mike Shanahan should only serve to improve Moss’s value. Fearless Forecast: 70-80 receptions, 1000-1100 yards, 6-8 tds
Malcolm Floyd, San Diego Chargers- Vincent Jackson is one giant question mark. He’s holding out and there are even rumors that he could be traded to the Seahawks. Someone has to step up and replace him as a giant red zone and deep threat. That guy is Floyd, he’s 6’5″ and is part of one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Philip Rivers puts up huge numbers every year and someone besides Antonio Gates has to pulling some of these passes. Once again, Malcolm Floyd is the guy I expect to step up and become the primary receiver in this powerful office. Fearless Forecast: 65-75 receptions, 900-1000 yards, 8-10 tds
Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings-Yeah we knew it was going to happen, Brett Favre is back…..well at least until Tavaris Jackson kills him for stealing his thunder once again. Shiancoe was morphing into one of Favre’s top red zone targets. Now Shiancoe won’t get a ton of receptions or yards but he is a touchdown machine and will serve as a good plug in tight end if you need a replacement or a starter (that would be kind of desperate). I had him a couple of years ago and he served well so just don’t count on him to be super consistent but he will have some decent games. Fearless Forecast: 50-60 receptions, 500-600 yards, 10-12 tds
Time for sleeper wide receiver number two (or three I guess if you count Johnny Knox). My second sleeper wide receiver is ……
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Photo courtesy of G. Newman Lowrance/Getty Images
Bowe was supposed to finally be able to breakout last season. Matt Cassel was supposed to be the answer at quarterback and his strong-arm and accuracy was supposed to turn Bowe into a fantasy force. Cassel failed to repeat his stunning Brady-fill-in performance and Cassel, Bowe and the Chief’s passing game faded into obscurity. I bet you that some people even wonder if Bowe is still in the league or what has happened to him. Although he fell apart last year, I believe this is the year Bowe lives up to his potential and breaks out for real. I have a couple of reasons to back that up.
1) Charlie Weis. The offensive mastermind comes in from Notre Dame and has the ability to completely revamp the Chiefs’ passing game. Weis’ primary goal is fixing Matt Cassel’s problems and turning him into a more effective quarterback. Weis has spent a ton of time analyzing Cassel’s film from last year and has been working with him all training camp. Weis even said, “You know I have to look at Matt Cassel all the time, I see him more than my wife. I am kind of tired of looking at him and he is tired of looking at me too.” Improving Cassel’s play can only help Bowe. Weis’ play calling should be a breath of fresh air for the Chiefs’ offense and should lead to more scoring, something that should directly benefit Bowe.
2) Improved conditioning. Bowe came into camp last year out of shape and not as committed to football as he should have been. He was nagged by injuries and commitment issues all season and was never really able to reach his full ability. Reports from this year’s training camp tell a completely different story. Bowe showed up at camp in great shape and with a warrior’s mentality, fully ready to bring his all on the field. Bowe is 6’2″ and weighs 221 pounds giving him enough size to win jump balls as well be a force after he catches the ball. He has also flashed moments of brilliance (see picture above) and generally has very reliable hands. His improved conditioning and spirits should lead to a much more devoted and effective Dwayne Bowe than we saw last year.
3) Improved offense. The Chiefs’ awesome, while not fearsome, is beginning to take shape and has the ability to put up points. The past couple of seasons, the Chiefs have been plagued by an awful running game. It seems like they may have finally cured that problem. They bring in Thomas Jones who is coming off back to back 1300+ yard, 13+ td seasons. They also have Jamaal Charles, who finally was able to get out from LJ’s shadow and proved he could be an elite feature back. From Week 9 on, Charles was the best running back not named Chris Johnson (although Charles and Johnson are very similar in their running style). Charles has home run hitting capability and great hands which make him a threat in the passing game as well. Between Jones and Charles, opposing defenses will have to dedicated a lot of attention to the run game which greatly benefits the Chiefs’ passing attack. The Chiefs have Chris Chambers who is enough of a threat to take some of the heat off Bowe. If Cassel is able to return to anything close to his ’08 Patriots form, then the Chiefs could have a dangerous passing attack.
Fearless Forecast: 90-100 receptions, 1100-1200 yards, 7-9 tds
Alright well time to go back through the positions which brings me back to the running back. My second sleeper RB is…..
Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions
Photo courtesy of AP Photos/Carlos Osorio
Jahvid Best is an electric running back who is capable of the breaking away on any given play. There are a couple of reasons why I like Best this year.
1) He’s Jahvid Best. The guy is fast, quick, agile and runs a 4.35 40, the best in the this year’s combine. Best can beat basically any defender one on one and is a nightmare if he gets to the corner or makes it past the linebackers and into the secondary. Check out some clips of Best at Cal. The guy is a human highlight reel. The video is long but you will get the idea after a minute or two.
2) The improved Lions offense. Basically just take a look at the sleeper explanation I did on Matthew Stafford. The Lions offensive line has been revamped and while it is still subpar, it is improved over last year’s simply because it really couldn’t get any worse. That should serve in better protecting Stafford and improving the aerial attack as well opening holes for Best to run through. Stafford has Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew for targets and all three are more than capable of making big plays and making defenses focus on the pass which should open up lanes for the rushing game.
3) There is a very realistic chance that Best could be the feature back come opening day. Now chances are the Lions will use a dual back system, alternating between Best and Kevin Smith, but I fully believe that Best will receive the majority of the carries and as the season progresses, his skill and pass catching abilities should prove to overpower Smith’s and earn him a lion share of the carries. Kevin Smith is coming back from multiple injuries, the most notable being a torn ACL. He is only one year removed from a LisFranc injury and these injuries have to start taking a toll on his explosiveness and durability. It is only a matter of time until Best takes over the Lion’s running for real and Kevin Smith is relegated to a simple change of pace back.
Fearless Forecast: 30-40 receptions, 1000 total yards, 6-8 tds
RB, WR, QB, TE down, that leaves the Defense to go. My sleeper defense is……..
Cleveland Browns Defense
Once again, I am sure that a bunch of people (well not a bunch because I don’t think a bunch read this blog but a high percentage of my trickling of followers) are laughing at me right now for this pick. I know, the Browns have been associated with a porous defense, I mean the Lions put up 38 points on them. There are some bright spots for the Browns though. Ahtyba Rubin is playing the nose tackle position in the Browns 3-4 defense and the guy is becoming quite the presence on the D-line. The 330 pounds 3 year player out of Iowa State is really coming into his own and plugging holes and stuffing the run. Rubin’s role as nose tackle allows Shaun Rogers to move to defensive end where he can hopefully put some pressure on the quarterback as well as use his size to stuff the run. D’Qwell Jackson has become quite the force at inside linebacker and he is joined by the consistent veteran, Scott Fujita of the Saints. Fujita is only a couple of seasons removed from back to back 90+ tackle seasons and he still has the ability to post numbers like that again. The Browns also have newly acquired Matt Roth who serves as an effective pass rush specialist. Cornerback Eric Wright is rapidly morphing into a shut down corner and playing opposite of him will either be Sheldon Brown or rookie phenom Joe Haden out of Florida. Either way, the Browns will have a cornerback tandem that has the talent to be in the top 5 in the league. The defense still has some question marks and hasn’t been truly tested but don’t be surprised if these guys are able to put together a good season and make the Browns defense respectable.
Check off RB, WR and QB. Next up comes the TE. My first sleeper TE is…….
Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders
Photo Courtesy of Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Much like my last sleeper, Stafford, Miller is also tethered to a fairly subpar team but that doesn’t mean his fantasy season is doomed. There are a couple of reasons that I am a Zach Miller fan.
1) The dude is huge, like seriously. 6’5″ and 255 pounds which gives him enough size to abuse linebackers and secondary. The truly scary thing about Miller is not his size but his athleticism. He is a matchup nightmare as his size prevents the smaller, quicker guys from covering him but his speed lets him run circles around most linebackers. Miller was second in the league last year in yards per catch, trailing only annual all-star Antonio Gates. Like Gates, Dallas Clark and Owen Daniels (to name a few), Miller is a wide receiver trapped in a tight end’s body. The guy is a beast after catch as once he reaches top speed no single guy can quickly take him down. In fact, I bet you only a fully grown bull elephant could do that. If you don’t know what a bull elephant is then a) you have a life or b)you don’t watch nearly enough discovery channel or national geographic. There is a significant chance that points a and b could overlap. Anyways, take one look at Zach Miller’s 86 yard td against the eagles last season and you will see why this guy is a YAC machine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkYsXneqRpQ (Zach Miller’s td)
2)He is trending upwards. Entering his fourth year in the league, the Arizona State product is poised to have his best season yet. In his first season he had 44 receptions for 444 yards, second season had 56 catches for 778 yards and last year he had 66 catches for 805 yards. His numbers have been going up every year and should continue to do so this year. All you need to do look at the last 4 games of last season (27 catches, 237 yards, 1td) to see that the Raiders finally understand Miller’s immense talent and are trying to incorporate him more. Extrapolate that data over a full season and Miller has 108 catches, 948 yards and 4 tds. Those are solid numbers and I actually believe them to be a little low for what Miller will do.
3) Raider’s improved offense. Really that should say No More Jamarcus (Off-da-markus for those who have had the misfortune of watching him) Russell!!!! Jason Campbell does have some talent and is a vast improvement at the quarterbacking position. That alone greatly boosts the Raider’s passing attack. Michael Bush and Run DMC (Darren McFadden) should be able to provide enough of a threat on the ground that opposing defenses can’t simply lock down on the passing game and blitz Campbell relentlessly. Developing wideouts Louis Murphy (check out his, #18, blocking on the Zach Miller 86 yard td, the guy works his tail off) and Chaz Schilens have enough talent to draw attention away from the center of the field which should free up Miller to dominate within the hash marks. First year quarterbacks are often uncomfortable taking chances and often look to their tight end as a security blanket which serves to boost Miller’s value.
This guy has the athleticism and talent to be an elite TE and it seems like the Raiders offense is finally catching up to him. He could be poised for a breakout year.
Fearless Forecast: 80 receptions, 1100 yards, 7 tds